The Phillies' reality

This is the challenge the Phillies face late in the first decade of the 21st century:

The Eagles, coming off a season in which their franchise QB suffered a serious injury for the third time in five years, have just begun training camp.

The Phillies, coming off a three-game home sweep of the Pirates, are 3.5 games behind the Mets in the NL East and 1.5 games behind the D'back in the wild card race.

Yet it's hard to say which one is more interesting. If I had to pick, Eagles camp would likely win out.

It's not that the Phillies aren't exciting to watch (especially if you consider screaming at your TV exciting) it's that their seasons of late have more twists and turns than your stomach while Jose Mesa is on the mound. Just when you're sure they're finished, when you've sworn off them until next season and asked, "So, who's starting at outside linebacker this year?" to no one in particular, the Phillies win eight of nine ... and you're drawn, helplessly, back into the season. Back into hoping the Mets will lose and the Phils will gain another game. Back into thinking maybe, just maybe, this will be year they finally get back to the playoffs, that magical nectar of which fans merely sipped 13 long years ago.

Now begins the real test for a bunch of also-rans. Chicago, Milwaukee, Atlanta, Florida and other menacing lineups await, with Utley (and now Madson) on the shelf, the bullpen still shaky and some guy named J.D. Durbin starting every fifth game.

Meanwhile, in Bethlehem, another bunch is still more than four weeks away from its first real action, and fan interest is humming.

In another month, which one will matter more? Will it even take that long?

One step forward, one broken hand back

The Phillies beleaguered bullpen blew another game today, but that doesn't matter too much (as if Mike Zagurski were ready for the big leagues). Of much more gravity is the loss of All-Star second baseman Chase Utley to a broken hand.

Utley was in the midst of an MVP-caliber season, and he has been the only player in the Phils lineup who hasn't slogged through a slump of some kind this season. He said today he plans to be back in less than a month, but you have to wonder if that's just baseball machisimo talking. The injury was to his right hand, and the importance of that to a second baseman is all too obvious. And there's also the consideration of the effect of a broken hand on the swing of a power hitter such as Utley. Less than a month? Best of luck, Chase.

So what does this mean for the Phillies' playoff aspirations? Barring major moves before the trade deadline, such an outcome was unlikely. And now, with the best hitter, and an above-average fielder, out of the lineup, it's going to get even less likely.

If Utley were to come back one month from today, he would have missed a total of 27 games. The NL wild card champion has finished with an average of 91 wins over the past five seasons. With the Phillies at 52-49, they're going to need to go 39-22 (a .639 winning percentage) over the final 61 games to hit that magic 91 mark. A .639 winning percentage during Utley's presumed 27-game absence equates to a 17-10 record. Possible? Yes. But considering the Phillies play Chicago, Milwaukee, Florida, Atlanta, Los Angeles and San Diego (with series at Washington and Pittsburgh squeezed in there) they have their work cut out for them.

The Phillies, however, did survive Ryan Howard's trip to the DL for 15 days in May. During that span, the team went 8-5. Double that is nearly the 17-10 mark.

Scenes replaying themselves over and over

Like the turning of leaves or the first biting winter wind in November, you can mark your calendar by the Phillies' annual midseason surge. They won their fourth straight tonight, 4-3 over the Nationals, to keep pace in the NL East and wild card races.

Sometimes it's easy to get trapped in generalizations about teams -- "Team X never hits well against left-handed starting pitching" or Team Y is awful late in games with runners on base" -- and many times, reality does not bear out these statements. But in the case of accusations that the Phillies always play just well enough to get your hopes up -- and then dash them -- they're all true. With the exception of 2002, the Phillies have been like the bravest geeks at a high school dance -- just when they think they've mustered enough courage to rise from their chair in the shadows and ask their dream girl out on the floor, they squash their own hopes with self-doubt and insecurity. They truly are their own worst enemy.

One of these years, the scene may play out differently for the Phillies. But little that we've seen over the first 99 games suggests it will be 2007.

Slip slidin' away

Oops, it's been two weeks since my last post. Time does fly. Let's see -- two weeks ago, the Phillies lost to the Rockies, dropping them to one game under .500. Tonight they beat the Padres, leaving them at ... .500. Apropos. With pitching that's among the worst in baseball and an overall lack of TPS (time, place, situation) awareness, the 2007 have proved themselves to be nothing more than average. All that's left to be determined is whether they'll finish two games ahead or behind in the loss column.

Luckily, football season is almost here to steal our attention and stir our hopes.

I hold this truth to be self-evident: The '07 Phillies aren't good enough

After the bullpen gave another game away just minutes ago in Colorado, I feel nothing. Where I normally would rage and fume at another missed chance to gain ground on the Mets, there is an emotional vacuum. This is a clear and unmistakable sign I have mentally entered football season. The 2007 Phillies are, essentially, dead.

I commend this team for being so mediocre, yet holding my attention until July 7. There is a sort of inverse relationship between a fans' passion for their team and their expectations of it. Had my expectations of this team been lower, I probably still would be glued to each game. But my preseason expectations of this team, whether because of desperation or sheer folly, were higher than any other year I can remember, even 1993.

I have to come to the only reasonable conclusion. The Phillies yet again don't have enough -- enough pitching, enough hitting, enough heart -- to make the playoffs. If only kickoff were next week, not two months away.

Now, for a real sport

Classic lines from the broadcast of today's Nathan's Famous International July Fourth Hot Dog Eating Contest:

"If you Google 'American hero' tomorrow, you'll see Abraham Lincoln, Neil Armstrong ... and Joey Chestnut if he can pull this one out."

"Kobayashi's had his wisdom teeth out. I don't know if you've ever had your wisdom teeth out, but it's more of a pain than a Peyton Manning cell phone commercial."

"It's an emotional win -- a great day for America."

On one of the lesser-known competitors: "He's like Kenny Lofton and Sam Cassell. He's Robert Horry without the rings."

Houston ... and plenty of problems

It's as hard to tell what to make of the mercifully-over four-game series with the Mets as it is of the 2001 Phillies. After all of the talk in spring training about what a glut of starting pitching the team had, it's hard to stomach their lack of starting pitching now. How can you expect to beat the Mets even once with three minor leaguers and an unrefined Cole Hamels? A split would have been a miracle. Taking one game was about the best you could expect. I thought that game would have come at the hands of Hamels, but those hands just keep throwing home run balls, which is why Kyle Kendrick was left with the task of slaying the Mets.

So, now that the NY dogs have finally gone west in search of other meat, what do we have? Eighty-two games in the books, five games back of the division lead, only four back of the wild-card-leading Dodgers. Considering the slings and arrows this team has suffered so far this season (losing two closers, two starters and 2006 NL MVP Ryan Howard for a couple of weeks) it's not an awful place to be. Sure, this team could be leading the division by a couple of games, especially considering how many games the Mets were giving away a few weeks ago. But the other side of the coin says the Phils could be 12 or more out (they were 8.5 out on May 31).

Since the Phils began the latest grueling stretch of their schedule, they're 7-9. Not great, not awful. Now they have a six games on the road against two teams oddly similar to the good-hit, no-pitch denizens of CBP -- Houston and Colorado. These are the series when the Phillies, especially when coming off a clunker, often sputter to life.