It wasn't advertised, but the Phils' doubleheader against the Mets today was a giveaway day. Not a Shane Victorino hula bobblehead, though. This time, two games were given away, and possiby the NL East race. Before you accuse me of hyperbole and defeatism because the season is not quite half over, remember 2001. That year the Phillies finished two games behind the Braves in the division. The Phils had a 9-10 record against the Braves that season, and three of the losses came in a three-game set in Philadelphia at the end of June. Would things have been different had the Phils taken two of three from the Braves in that series?
If that's not enough, how about 2005? The Phillies wound up just one solitary game in back of the Astros in the wild card race. Their record against Houston that season: 0-6 (the last three of which came in a sweep in early September at CBP; remember Craig Biggio destroying a Billy Wagner fastball for a three-run home run? That was in the ghastly ninth inning of the final game). Had the Phillies been able to take two of those six games, again, they likely would not have been on the golf course in October.
So here, we are -- another year, another apparent Phillies collapse against a team they're battling with for a postseason berth. With rookies J.A. Happ and Kyle Kendrick going the next two days, I don't expect much. The Phillies' recent history (not to mention the rest of the woeful story) doesn't let me.
Friday, June 29, 2007
I'll take 'The Pen Is Not Mighter' for $100, Alex
It's games like last night's that begat the saying, "Only in Philadelphia can a sports fan turn off the TV after a win and be angry." The Phillies, despite the best efforts of their bullpen (and the utter refusal of the umpires to halt the game during a monsoon), beat the Reds in 10 innings.
On the heels of a second straight underwhelming outing by the underwhelming Adam Eaton, Ryan Madson coughed up two more runs. The season is almost at the midpoint, and the Phils' offense has been able to keep them near the top of the NL East and wild card races. But there will come a point when the bullpen is going to have to be counted on for scoreless innings. I would say that time would be this weekend's four-gamer against the Mets, but because three of the Phillies starting pitchers have spent most of this season in the minors, I'm not sure the 'pen is going to be relevant.
Their time will come soon. It will be in the hands of Geoff Geary, Madson, Antonio Alfonseca, Clay Condrey, Brian Sanches, et al. For the past two-plus weeks, all but Alfonseca (amazingly) have been lit up more than Richie Ashburn's old cigar.
On the heels of a second straight underwhelming outing by the underwhelming Adam Eaton, Ryan Madson coughed up two more runs. The season is almost at the midpoint, and the Phils' offense has been able to keep them near the top of the NL East and wild card races. But there will come a point when the bullpen is going to have to be counted on for scoreless innings. I would say that time would be this weekend's four-gamer against the Mets, but because three of the Phillies starting pitchers have spent most of this season in the minors, I'm not sure the 'pen is going to be relevant.
Their time will come soon. It will be in the hands of Geoff Geary, Madson, Antonio Alfonseca, Clay Condrey, Brian Sanches, et al. For the past two-plus weeks, all but Alfonseca (amazingly) have been lit up more than Richie Ashburn's old cigar.
Saturday, June 23, 2007
Sippin' through the final straw
Jon Lieber has a ruptured tendon in his foot, and he may be out for the season. Not to say that Lieber is an integral part of the Phils' rotation -- he's way too inconsistent for that -- but he has something that whoever replaces him almost certainly won't: experience. Who will the Phillies bring up from Double-A Reading to fill the gap? And why doesn't this organization seem to have any arms at Triple-A? Guess we'll know soon.
Wednesday, June 20, 2007
Bull Pen
The Phillies' bullpen has reached China Syndrome levels. Eight runs in the sixth inning tonight (many of which were starter Jon Lieber's fault) in what will be another loss to the Indians. Even in their one win in this series, the 'pen almost gave it away.
Teams can't afford to have their bullpen consistently cough up two, three, six runs a game -- which is the biggest obstacle between the Phillies and first place in the NL East. It's been that way since Opening Day, and the only solution is through a change of personnel. The ownership certainly won't throw around money, so the only possible personnel "change" is the return of Tom Gordon and Brett Myers.
Meet the new boss -- same as the old boss.
Teams can't afford to have their bullpen consistently cough up two, three, six runs a game -- which is the biggest obstacle between the Phillies and first place in the NL East. It's been that way since Opening Day, and the only solution is through a change of personnel. The ownership certainly won't throw around money, so the only possible personnel "change" is the return of Tom Gordon and Brett Myers.
Meet the new boss -- same as the old boss.
Tuesday, June 19, 2007
Indians #2
Kyle Kendrick soldiers through six innings against the Indians, with the Phillies holding a 6-3 lead, and now Ryan Madson enters. Gulp.
Cole breaker
Two days, two seemingly different stories for the Phillies' pitching staff. On Sunday, they got another solid outing from Adam Eaton, played small ball (which they have failed to do consistently this season) and took a lead into the seventh against the Tigers, only to see their shaky bullpen capitulate. Tonight it was the front end of the staff's turn to fail, with Cole Hamels looking vulnerable from the first batter (Grady Sizemore, who pushed a bunt past Hamels, stole second and scored the first run of the game).
The 'pen wasn't blameless, as Geoff Geary (3 ER in one inning) was scored on for the fourth straight outing and Brian Sanches gave up a home run to former Phil Jason Michaels (wouldn't he look great in left field compared with the current albatross?)
But tonight served to remind us that Cole Hamels is not invincible. He's not even great. Not yet. He has the potential to be great, which we have seen in his nine wins this season. But he's still in only his second season, and he's still very much a raw talent. He's not ready to be a pitcher who can be counted on for a quality start nearly every time out.
So if the bullpen cannot be counted on (see Sunday) ... and the No. 1 starter isn't quite a No. 1 (see tonight) ... how can the Phillies possibly stay in contention? They have begun one of the toughest stretches of their schedule (vs Detroit, at Cleveland, at St. Louis, vs Cincinnati, vs Mets, at Houston, at Colorado, vs. St Louis, at Dodgers, at San Diego). That 31-game stretch will play a large role in determining their fate in September -- and 1-3 isn't a good way to start.
The 'pen wasn't blameless, as Geoff Geary (3 ER in one inning) was scored on for the fourth straight outing and Brian Sanches gave up a home run to former Phil Jason Michaels (wouldn't he look great in left field compared with the current albatross?)
But tonight served to remind us that Cole Hamels is not invincible. He's not even great. Not yet. He has the potential to be great, which we have seen in his nine wins this season. But he's still in only his second season, and he's still very much a raw talent. He's not ready to be a pitcher who can be counted on for a quality start nearly every time out.
So if the bullpen cannot be counted on (see Sunday) ... and the No. 1 starter isn't quite a No. 1 (see tonight) ... how can the Phillies possibly stay in contention? They have begun one of the toughest stretches of their schedule (vs Detroit, at Cleveland, at St. Louis, vs Cincinnati, vs Mets, at Houston, at Colorado, vs. St Louis, at Dodgers, at San Diego). That 31-game stretch will play a large role in determining their fate in September -- and 1-3 isn't a good way to start.
Sunday, June 17, 2007
JRoll's role
Jimmy Rollins drew a walk tonight, his 18th of the season -- putting him on pace for about 43 walks. In 2006, Rollins walked 57 times, tying his career-high. Rollins' counterpart on the Mets, Jose Reyes, had 54 walks last season. This year, Reyes has 39 walks, which equates to a total of 96 walks for the season.
Before I go any further, let me note that Rollins has an OPS of .861 this season (mostly thanks to his 13 HRs), which would be by far the highest of his career. But Reyes, who has only three HRs, has the higher OPS at .866. (He's also on pace for 88 steals).
The point: Rollins home run explosion this season isn't a boon, and it may be an albatross. While a home run is a guaranteed run, it's an all-or-nothing wager. When Rollins, an Oakland native, is back-legging it, he's the baseball equivalent of his hometown basketball team -- the 3-point-or-bust Warriors.
In basketball, the safer shot is the layup. That's what Reyes does, and what a leadoff hitter -- arguably the most important batter in the lineup -- should do. He walks, slaps a single, steals second (and maybe third) and leaves the rest to the middle of the lineup. Last year, it helped get the Mets to the NL East title and a game away from the World Series.
For better or worse, Rollins is the Phillies' leadoff hitter. His affinity for the longball may keep his run total and OPS high, but in the long run the lower-percentage play is always more likely than not to fail, as the Warriors found out against the Jazz.
Before I go any further, let me note that Rollins has an OPS of .861 this season (mostly thanks to his 13 HRs), which would be by far the highest of his career. But Reyes, who has only three HRs, has the higher OPS at .866. (He's also on pace for 88 steals).
The point: Rollins home run explosion this season isn't a boon, and it may be an albatross. While a home run is a guaranteed run, it's an all-or-nothing wager. When Rollins, an Oakland native, is back-legging it, he's the baseball equivalent of his hometown basketball team -- the 3-point-or-bust Warriors.
In basketball, the safer shot is the layup. That's what Reyes does, and what a leadoff hitter -- arguably the most important batter in the lineup -- should do. He walks, slaps a single, steals second (and maybe third) and leaves the rest to the middle of the lineup. Last year, it helped get the Mets to the NL East title and a game away from the World Series.
For better or worse, Rollins is the Phillies' leadoff hitter. His affinity for the longball may keep his run total and OPS high, but in the long run the lower-percentage play is always more likely than not to fail, as the Warriors found out against the Jazz.
Saturday, June 16, 2007
And we're off ...
Welcome to the Philadelphia sports fan blog -- Phlog, for short. I've been talking about getting this running for a while, and I've finally matched deeds to words. The timing seems about right, too. The Phillies have crept back into the National League East (and Wild Card) races, Eagles hype is beginning its annual pre-training camp buildup, the NBA Draft is less than two weeks away ... and then there are the Flyers.
The Phillies seem to have recaptured our attention -- at least for a few days -- selling more than 42,000 tickets to the first game of this weekend's series with the Tigers. And the fans got what they wanted -- home runs, of which the Phillies launched five (but only one with a man on the bathpaths). This Phils team seems intent on living and dying by the home run, and solo home runs aren't going to cut it. But home runs won't matter much when your pitching staff -- which often seems as reliable as a bottle of Chinese cough syrup -- gives up 12 runs. Teams that do that a few too many times have to make other plans for October. Jamie Moyer (6 ER in 3 2/3 last time out) will be playing Wiffleball with the Tigers on Saturday.
The Phillies seem to have recaptured our attention -- at least for a few days -- selling more than 42,000 tickets to the first game of this weekend's series with the Tigers. And the fans got what they wanted -- home runs, of which the Phillies launched five (but only one with a man on the bathpaths). This Phils team seems intent on living and dying by the home run, and solo home runs aren't going to cut it. But home runs won't matter much when your pitching staff -- which often seems as reliable as a bottle of Chinese cough syrup -- gives up 12 runs. Teams that do that a few too many times have to make other plans for October. Jamie Moyer (6 ER in 3 2/3 last time out) will be playing Wiffleball with the Tigers on Saturday.
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