The Phillies beleaguered bullpen blew another game today, but that doesn't matter too much (as if Mike Zagurski were ready for the big leagues). Of much more gravity is the loss of All-Star second baseman Chase Utley to a broken hand.
Utley was in the midst of an MVP-caliber season, and he has been the only player in the Phils lineup who hasn't slogged through a slump of some kind this season. He said today he plans to be back in less than a month, but you have to wonder if that's just baseball machisimo talking. The injury was to his right hand, and the importance of that to a second baseman is all too obvious. And there's also the consideration of the effect of a broken hand on the swing of a power hitter such as Utley. Less than a month? Best of luck, Chase.
So what does this mean for the Phillies' playoff aspirations? Barring major moves before the trade deadline, such an outcome was unlikely. And now, with the best hitter, and an above-average fielder, out of the lineup, it's going to get even less likely.
If Utley were to come back one month from today, he would have missed a total of 27 games. The NL wild card champion has finished with an average of 91 wins over the past five seasons. With the Phillies at 52-49, they're going to need to go 39-22 (a .639 winning percentage) over the final 61 games to hit that magic 91 mark. A .639 winning percentage during Utley's presumed 27-game absence equates to a 17-10 record. Possible? Yes. But considering the Phillies play Chicago, Milwaukee, Florida, Atlanta, Los Angeles and San Diego (with series at Washington and Pittsburgh squeezed in there) they have their work cut out for them.
The Phillies, however, did survive Ryan Howard's trip to the DL for 15 days in May. During that span, the team went 8-5. Double that is nearly the 17-10 mark.
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