JRoll's role

Jimmy Rollins drew a walk tonight, his 18th of the season -- putting him on pace for about 43 walks. In 2006, Rollins walked 57 times, tying his career-high. Rollins' counterpart on the Mets, Jose Reyes, had 54 walks last season. This year, Reyes has 39 walks, which equates to a total of 96 walks for the season.

Before I go any further, let me note that Rollins has an OPS of .861 this season (mostly thanks to his 13 HRs), which would be by far the highest of his career. But Reyes, who has only three HRs, has the higher OPS at .866. (He's also on pace for 88 steals).

The point: Rollins home run explosion this season isn't a boon, and it may be an albatross. While a home run is a guaranteed run, it's an all-or-nothing wager. When Rollins, an Oakland native, is back-legging it, he's the baseball equivalent of his hometown basketball team -- the 3-point-or-bust Warriors.

In basketball, the safer shot is the layup. That's what Reyes does, and what a leadoff hitter -- arguably the most important batter in the lineup -- should do. He walks, slaps a single, steals second (and maybe third) and leaves the rest to the middle of the lineup. Last year, it helped get the Mets to the NL East title and a game away from the World Series.

For better or worse, Rollins is the Phillies' leadoff hitter. His affinity for the longball may keep his run total and OPS high, but in the long run the lower-percentage play is always more likely than not to fail, as the Warriors found out against the Jazz.