Eagles vs. Giants -- LIVE!

1:22 p.m.: The Eagles, whose offense was a mess the first time these two teams met, ran six plays on their first drive -- and they all worked. The offense did more on that drive than it did in several games this season combined. That was way too easy. But I've seen this before. They're going to give up 42 straight points now.

And now Andy Reid calls for a QB sneak on 4th-and-1 from the Eagles 35, and McNabb converts it. Has Reid gone mad? Or is he so sane he's blown all our minds?

1:28: McNabb dashes out to the right on 3rd-and-7, sprints to the sidelines, and throws the ball away. Hooray! Maybe No. 5 has learned something after all -- QBs CAN throw the ball away. I think he was a hair faster on that play than he has been on every previous scramble this season.

1:32: Eagles defense forces the Giants to go three-and-out again. Eli's got the look of a fawn that got lost from its mother and wandered into the middle of I-78.

1:33: A tongue-tied Merrill Reese just referred to McNabb as "McNut." Freudian slip? Reid calls another gadget play -- a double reverse ending with a 40-yard pass by Greg Lewis into double coverage. Every so often, it's as if Reid reacts to being called conservative by making up plays Mad Libs-style. But Lewis' throw looked a hell of a lot better than most of A.J. Feeley's ... hmmm.

1:39: Lito Sheppard is called for a personal foul for "slamming the ballcarrier into the ground unnecessarily," referee Ron Winter said. Are you joking, Ron? That's called a tackle. If Sheppard doesn't slam Sinorice Moss down, he will run toward the other end of the field. That's called a touchdown. The Giants escape a 3rd-and-15 and are alive and kicking.

1:47: Reuben Droughns runs for 35 yards to the Eagles 1 on 3rd-and-1. Brian Dawkins showed he still has speed and power, catching and slamming down Droughns at the 1. Teams too often get caught in those situations overloading toward one side of the line, and that's what happened.

1:49: "They stack him up again!" Eagles D holds on 3rd-and-goal from the 1 despite an offsides penalty two plays before. Coughlin settles for the FG. Wise move considering the Philly defense looked Dr. Bruce Banner finding out he should have switched to Geico.

1:57: A question I've often wondered: During a play, how hard is it to be semi-aware of where you are on the field? The Eagles just cost themselves a drive because Reggie Brown and Westbrook didn't know they were inches from a first down on two straight plays.

2:01: After a good start, the Eagles are failing to pressure Eli. He has time to make throws, and Burress, Toomer and Shockey are good enough to get open.

2:04: Players who get called for illegal contact (when it's legit) should receive a one-game suspension from their team. It's usually unnecessary, and almost always obvious. The rule is simple: No touching the WR after 5 yards. What's so hard to understand?

2:06: Trent Cole introduces Eli to the Linc's new DD GrassMaster turf/grass blend for the second time today, stopping a Giants drive cold at midfield. That's 11.5 sacks this season for the DE.

2:10: McNabb fires to BWest lurking over the middle for to convert on 3rd-and-short. Which brings up another vital question: Has any other QB in the history of the NFL thrown harder short passes than McNabb. He's like the guy in your dorm who's never played Madden before, and you challenge him to a game and only tell him about the "bullet pass." McNabb's going to break BWest's hand one of these days.

2:16: R.W. McQuarters breaks several sloppy arm tackles, returning a punt to the 50 with 1:24 left before halftime. I'm not sure how McQuarters isn't in the CFL right now. I'm also not sure how the Eagles offense could look so good for one drive and so mediocre on every other.

2:23: A short field goal makes it 7-6. With 12 seconds on the clock, and facing third and long from about the Eagles 15, Eli throws a 10-yard pass. The Giants had one timeout, and they were saving it to set up for the FG attempt. So obviously, you ought to go to the end zone in that case. The field is in pretty good shape. Tynes should be able to make a kick from there (about 33 yards) if the throw is incomplete. But they didn't even take a shot at a TD.

2:40: The officials rule Brandon Jacobs fumbled, and the Eagles recover at the Giants 8. Coughlin challenges. It's really a tough call. It seems this season that the whole "must be conclusive evidence" standard has been softened. I've seen calls where there wasn't enough such evidence, and the call was overturned anyway. My first instinct here was incomplete pass, but the call on the field was a fumble. That means the replay would have to have rock-solid evidence to the contrary, and it doesn't seem to.

And the verdict is ... fumble. The system works. And the Eagles promptly shoot themselves in the foot with a false start and a sack. Osi Umenyiora again.

2:46: The boos are showering down. A fumble recovery at inside the Giants 8, and the Eagles didn't even get close to the end zone, settling for an FG. The red zone offense this year has been less reliable than a bullpen with Tom Gordon, Jose Mesa and Antonio Alfonseca (as if that could ever happen ... oh, crap) Lito Sheppard again is called for touching a WR beyond 5 yards. He doesn't get it.

2:52: The Eagles couldn't intercept a pass right now if you spotted them the ball and possession. Dawk can still get there, but he and I have the same number of picks this year.

2:56: Westbrook: 10 carries, 51 yards. McNabb hurls a laser to Kevin Curtis on 3rd-and-3. In lacrosse, they call that a "hospital ball." Fortunately for Curtis, no Giant was waiting for him when he twisted around to snap the pass. The Birds seem to have no interest in going downfield at this point -- unless Greg Lewis is throwing. On 3rd-and-long, McNabb gives a glimpse of himself about 5 years ago, somehow ducking away from Kevin Dockery blitzing free from his CB spot.

3:04: Merrill calls the Eagles defense "charging, firebreathing." And he's not exaggerating. Eli doesn't even have time right now to do his "aw, shucks" shrug.

3:08: Westbrook fumbles on a screen pass at the Eagles 38. The playcalling just isn't cutting it.

3:10: Amani Toomer fumbles after a catch at the 20. Eagles recover. Or not. The refs reverse the call, saying Toomer was down by contact (isn't it convenient for the NFL how there's no clear definition for that term?) Reid throws the red flag, but to no avail. I'd like to know why the refs reversed the original fumble call. And Ron Winter's explanation of "he was contacted when he was on the ground" makes little sense. When Toomer was touched, he fumbled. So either his elbow hit and he was down, or he fumbled. Being touched had nothing to do with it.

3:15: Burress catches an easy slant and goes in for a TD. 13-10 Giants.

3:18: McNabb takes a sack on first down. He was running out to the right, with three Giants in pursuit. THROW THE BALL AWAY! He doesn't have the speed to get away from defenders anymore, and he's reluctant to throw the ball away when the rules say he can. This will plague McNabb for the rest of his career unless he can change his habits.

Now he, not Eli, is the fawn on I-78. Actually, make that the Schuylkill Expressway.

3:22: The Eagles have no one who can cover Burress. Without illegal contact. Dawkins is out with an injury, and the Giants are in control.

3:25: Eli throws behind Burress on 3rd-and-goal. FG makes it 16-10. If Eli could throw a precise pass, the Giants would have at least a 10-point lead. But it may be moot because the Giants are starting to get pressure on McNabb, and either the WRs aren't getting open or the QB isn't electing to throw the ball.

L.J. Smith is out with injury and won't return.

3:31: Two carries by Westbrook, and the Eagles are in Giants territory. Let's see if they stick with him. 12 carries, 81 yards.

3rd-and-1 and they give it to Westbrook, who gets stacked up inches shy. Why not run a sneak? It worked before. But because they didn't their backs are against the wall.

3:37: Giants offsides on 3rd-and-3 gives the Eagles a gift first down. It's good to see someone else do that for a change. Two plays later, McNabb takes another sack on the sidelines because he failed to throw the ball away. Perhaps he needs to see a shrink. He may have some sort of complex. An Akers FG makes it 16-13. McNabb is having a meltdown. If you listen carefully, you can hear the calls for Kevin Kolb.

3:47: The refs don't understand the neutral zone infraction rule. And boy, does Burress make the Eagles look silly. I don't know why Eli doesn't throw to him every time.

Jacobs breaks free but fumbles at the 5! Eagles recover! Bad news: The offense has to come onto the field.

3:57: On the back on Westbrook, the Eagles move into Giants territory. Then on 3rd-and-5, Reid calls a run. Loss of 1. On fourth down, McNabb throws over the middle incomplete to Avant. It appeared Avant was hit before he caught the ball, but guess what? Avant was still a yard short! Hey Andy, how about drawing up a fourth-down play where receivers get to the marker? Oh, and if that were the Patriots, you can be damn sure the flag would have been thrown. So what does that say about credibility in the NFL?

4:05: No Westbrook miracle this time. Eagles start from their 10 with under a minute and no TOs. Once again, the Eagles show they have no clue how to do a hurry-up offense. They run two pass plays, for a gain of about 35 yards, and are left with 12 seconds. A pass play to Reggie Brown than takes 6 seconds and should have taken 4.
A 57-yard attempt by Akers hits the right upright with 1 second left. It would have been good from 59 or 60.

Just like old times

Tonight's Flyers game features the return of Bill Clement to the team's broadcast booth. Play-by-play man Jim Jackson said during the intro that Clement, the Flyers' first-round pick (18th overall) in the 1970 draft, will fill in for Keith Jones when Jones is working as a studio analyst for the Versus network. Clement will do nine Flyers broadcasts, according to a news release on the Flyers Web site.

The move harks back to 1989-92, when Clement and Mike Emrick were the Flyers' broadcasting team on PRISM and WPSG-TV Channel 57. Those two were, and still are, among the best voices in the sport.

A breakdown of the Reid Era

In the wake of the Eagles' come-from-behind upset win at FedEx Field in Washington, D.C., yesterday, a question popped into my mind: Under Andy Reid, how many upset wins do the Birds have? And on the flip side, how many games have they blown (yes, it has seemed like more than a season's worth).

So, using the invaluable resource pro-football-reference.com, I looked back at the 137 regular season games in the Reid Era and unscientifically placed each game into one of the following categories:

• Blowout Loss -- a defeat by 20 points or more
  
• Acceptable Loss -- a loss that had little chance of being a win
• They Blew It -- a game the Eagles should have won but found a way to lose
• Upset Win -- a case of snatching victory from the Jaworski of defeat
• Acceptable Win -- a game the Eagles should have won and did
• Blowout Win -- a game the Eagles won by 20 or more points

Now you see what I mean by "unscientific." Some games fit into more than one category, such as an upset win by more than 20 points. In such cases, I used my best judgment and put the game into the category I thought was most applicable.

The results

• Blowout Loss: 12 (three each in 1999 and 2005 -- two awful seasons)
• Acceptable Loss: 24 (this number seems low; I had none for 2002)
• They Blew It: 17 (I thought this tally would be high, but not this high. The only year that had zero was 2004. This year has two classic cases so far -- Green Bay and Chicago -- after three last year -- Giants I, Saints and Buccaneers. The question is, how has Andy Reid survived blowing 17 wins in less than nine seasons? That's more than a season's worth of games)
• Upset Win: 16 (I might have been a little stingy here, but I know it's not off by more than two)
• Acceptable Win: 47 (as expected, this category has the highest amount. I counted six such wins last season but only one so far this year, against the Jets)
  
• Blowout Win: 21 (this was the real surprise of the bunch -- exactly one-quarter of Reid's 84 wins in the regular season have been by 20 points or more. I doubt any other current coach is remotely close, though Bill Belichick might be getting there)

What about Reid's checkered postseason?

• Blowout Loss: none (gotta give a modicum of credit to Big Red here)
  
• Acceptable Loss: 6
• They Blew It: none (though I was tempted to place the NFC Championship Game losses to Tampa and Carolina here, the Eagles never has a clear chance to win either)
• Upset Win: 1 (2001 at Chicago; I can't track down the Vegas line on that game ... but how were the Bears 13-3 that year?)
• Acceptable Win: 6
• Blowout Win: 1 (2001 vs. Tampa)

The year-by-year breakdown

1999

They blew it: 1

Acceptable loss: 7

Blowout loss (-20): 3

Acceptable win: 1

Blowout win (+20):

Upset win: 4

2000

They blew it: 3

Acceptable loss: 2

Blowout loss (-20):

Acceptable win: 9

Blowout win (+20): 1

Upset win: 1

Playoffs: 1 Acceptable win, 1 Acceptable loss

2001

They blew it: 2

Acceptable loss: 3

Blowout loss (-20):

Acceptable win: 6

Blowout win (+20): 4

Upset win: 1

Playoffs: 1 Blowout win, 1 Upset win, 1 Acceptable loss

2002

They blew it: 3

Acceptable loss:

Blowout loss (-20): 1

Acceptable win: 7

Blowout win (+20): 5

Upset win:

Playoffs: 1 Acceptable win, 1 Acceptable loss

2003

They blew it: 1

Acceptable loss: 1

Blowout loss (-20 or shutout): 2

Acceptable win: 6

Blowout win (+20): 2

Upset win: 4

Playoffs: 1 Acceptable win, 1 Acceptable loss

2004

They blew it:

Acceptable loss: 1

Blowout loss (-20): 2

Acceptable win: 8

Blowout win (+20): 5

Upset win:

Playoffs: 2 Acceptable wins, 1 Acceptable loss

2005

They blew it: 2

Acceptable loss: 5

Blowout loss (-20): 3

Acceptable win: 3

Blowout win (+20): 1

Upset win: 2

2006

They blew it: 3

Acceptable loss: 2

Blowout loss (-20): 1

Acceptable win: 6

Blowout win (+20): 2

Upset win: 2

Playoffs: 1 Acceptable win, 1 Acceptable loss

2007

They blew it: 2

Acceptable loss: 3

Blowout loss (-20):

Acceptable win: 1

Blowout win (+20): 1

Upset win: 2

Are they who we thought they were?

The Philadelphia sports scene is teetering on the brink of an entire season of fan apathy. The Eagles are an ugly loss to the Cowboys (but what losses to Dallas aren't ugly) away from a "Fire Reid Rally", the Flyers are getting outshot by a 2-1 margin or worse every game, and the 76ers' offense is treating the lane as if it's coated with Chinese paint. Two months ago the once-infallible Eagles were "a hair off"; now it seems we're a follicle or two away from a winter of discontent, one in which playoff beards will be as rare as candidness at an NFL press conference.

Perhaps all of this is premature, and maybe the Flyers will find a consistent offense and the 76ers' bench will make up for their starting center, who looks to be more milquetoast than Wheaties material.

But attention has already begun to turn back to the Phillies, with clamors for the return of Curt Schilling and a deal for Mike Lowell, or anyone else who can play the hot corner and has a bigger bat than Wes Helms and Abraham Nunez.

After Sunday, the interest level in the Phillies will reveal a lot of about how long a winter it's going to be in Philadelphia sports.

Postmortem

Now that nearly a week has passed since the Phillies' first postseason run ended before it ever got started, it's much easier to look at this season with a clearer perspective. All in all, they pulled off a pretty amazing feat, being seven behind the Mets with 19 to play and somehow still overcoming the odds to win the East.

Now that the Rockies have beaten the D'Backs in Game 1 of the NLCS, the Phillies' defeat has been validated a little bit more.

The tasks now: Find some relief pitching, sign a third baseman who can actually hit the ball and bring back Aaron Rowand (though I don't see that happening).

On that note, with the Eagles seeming much worse than anyone would have guessed before the season, the Philly sports spotlight appears to be shifting to the Flyers. It'll be interesting to see if hockey in Philadelphia still has enough cachet to draw in the casual fan. If not, I have no idea what callers will talk about on WIP until spring training 2008.

Believe

Sometimes pro sports just doesn't make sense. The Phillies have been plagued by abysmal pitching all year, their starting rotation has been decimated by injuries and Adam Eaton, and their hitting has, at times, been as capricious as a 3-year-old in Toys 'R' Us.

Yet, here they are. Four games to go. One behind the Mets in the division. One behind the Padres for the wild card. As Whitey Asburn used to say, "Hard to believe, Harry."

The Phillies shouldn't be here. They really shouldn't. Yet here they are, with a division crown and a wild-card berth both within a fingernail of their grasp.

This year, the Phillies' slogan is "Goosebumps: What Will They Do For You?" Neither riveting nor concise, though their bullpen has been rather fowl.

A few years ago (I don't remember which season it was, but like most in this decade, it probably ended in grotesque frustration) the Phillies' slogan was "Believe."

I can't think of a better mantra for these final four games.

A reason to believe?

Never in an eon did I think I would be blogging about the Phillies during my vacation (Ocean City, N.J.) but here I am. In my last post, which was about a month ago, I asked which team would matter more -- the Phillies or the Eagles -- four weeks hence. The answer, after a stunning four-game sweep of the Mets at Citizens Bank Park, is the Phillies.

They seemed dead after Brett Myers served up two longballs in a 4-3 loss to the Padres on Saturday. The season was over. Bring on football.

Five wins later, they're very much in both the NL East and wild-card races with a month to play. Ryan Howard and Chase Utley both have been on the DL. Only three-fifths of the original starting rotation -- Cole Hamels, Adam Eaton and Jamie Moyer -- is still intact (and Eaton has been a bust and Moyer shaky to say the least). Pat Burrell outdid even himself during a moribund April, May and June.

And there have been more obstacles: an at-times disastrous bullpen, a dearth of timely hitting, putrid baserunning (mostly thanks to the work of Steve Smith), failure to move runners and a congenital fear of bunting.

Yet through all that, they're right in the thick of it. After Tadahito Iguchi scampered home yesterday with the winning run, I drifted back to Tug McGraw's timeless slogan, "Ya Gotta Believe!" But do I really believe a team with this many flaws can win a division against a Mets team stacked with superior talent? I'm still not convinced.

The Phillies' reality

This is the challenge the Phillies face late in the first decade of the 21st century:

The Eagles, coming off a season in which their franchise QB suffered a serious injury for the third time in five years, have just begun training camp.

The Phillies, coming off a three-game home sweep of the Pirates, are 3.5 games behind the Mets in the NL East and 1.5 games behind the D'back in the wild card race.

Yet it's hard to say which one is more interesting. If I had to pick, Eagles camp would likely win out.

It's not that the Phillies aren't exciting to watch (especially if you consider screaming at your TV exciting) it's that their seasons of late have more twists and turns than your stomach while Jose Mesa is on the mound. Just when you're sure they're finished, when you've sworn off them until next season and asked, "So, who's starting at outside linebacker this year?" to no one in particular, the Phillies win eight of nine ... and you're drawn, helplessly, back into the season. Back into hoping the Mets will lose and the Phils will gain another game. Back into thinking maybe, just maybe, this will be year they finally get back to the playoffs, that magical nectar of which fans merely sipped 13 long years ago.

Now begins the real test for a bunch of also-rans. Chicago, Milwaukee, Atlanta, Florida and other menacing lineups await, with Utley (and now Madson) on the shelf, the bullpen still shaky and some guy named J.D. Durbin starting every fifth game.

Meanwhile, in Bethlehem, another bunch is still more than four weeks away from its first real action, and fan interest is humming.

In another month, which one will matter more? Will it even take that long?

One step forward, one broken hand back

The Phillies beleaguered bullpen blew another game today, but that doesn't matter too much (as if Mike Zagurski were ready for the big leagues). Of much more gravity is the loss of All-Star second baseman Chase Utley to a broken hand.

Utley was in the midst of an MVP-caliber season, and he has been the only player in the Phils lineup who hasn't slogged through a slump of some kind this season. He said today he plans to be back in less than a month, but you have to wonder if that's just baseball machisimo talking. The injury was to his right hand, and the importance of that to a second baseman is all too obvious. And there's also the consideration of the effect of a broken hand on the swing of a power hitter such as Utley. Less than a month? Best of luck, Chase.

So what does this mean for the Phillies' playoff aspirations? Barring major moves before the trade deadline, such an outcome was unlikely. And now, with the best hitter, and an above-average fielder, out of the lineup, it's going to get even less likely.

If Utley were to come back one month from today, he would have missed a total of 27 games. The NL wild card champion has finished with an average of 91 wins over the past five seasons. With the Phillies at 52-49, they're going to need to go 39-22 (a .639 winning percentage) over the final 61 games to hit that magic 91 mark. A .639 winning percentage during Utley's presumed 27-game absence equates to a 17-10 record. Possible? Yes. But considering the Phillies play Chicago, Milwaukee, Florida, Atlanta, Los Angeles and San Diego (with series at Washington and Pittsburgh squeezed in there) they have their work cut out for them.

The Phillies, however, did survive Ryan Howard's trip to the DL for 15 days in May. During that span, the team went 8-5. Double that is nearly the 17-10 mark.

Scenes replaying themselves over and over

Like the turning of leaves or the first biting winter wind in November, you can mark your calendar by the Phillies' annual midseason surge. They won their fourth straight tonight, 4-3 over the Nationals, to keep pace in the NL East and wild card races.

Sometimes it's easy to get trapped in generalizations about teams -- "Team X never hits well against left-handed starting pitching" or Team Y is awful late in games with runners on base" -- and many times, reality does not bear out these statements. But in the case of accusations that the Phillies always play just well enough to get your hopes up -- and then dash them -- they're all true. With the exception of 2002, the Phillies have been like the bravest geeks at a high school dance -- just when they think they've mustered enough courage to rise from their chair in the shadows and ask their dream girl out on the floor, they squash their own hopes with self-doubt and insecurity. They truly are their own worst enemy.

One of these years, the scene may play out differently for the Phillies. But little that we've seen over the first 99 games suggests it will be 2007.

Slip slidin' away

Oops, it's been two weeks since my last post. Time does fly. Let's see -- two weeks ago, the Phillies lost to the Rockies, dropping them to one game under .500. Tonight they beat the Padres, leaving them at ... .500. Apropos. With pitching that's among the worst in baseball and an overall lack of TPS (time, place, situation) awareness, the 2007 have proved themselves to be nothing more than average. All that's left to be determined is whether they'll finish two games ahead or behind in the loss column.

Luckily, football season is almost here to steal our attention and stir our hopes.

I hold this truth to be self-evident: The '07 Phillies aren't good enough

After the bullpen gave another game away just minutes ago in Colorado, I feel nothing. Where I normally would rage and fume at another missed chance to gain ground on the Mets, there is an emotional vacuum. This is a clear and unmistakable sign I have mentally entered football season. The 2007 Phillies are, essentially, dead.

I commend this team for being so mediocre, yet holding my attention until July 7. There is a sort of inverse relationship between a fans' passion for their team and their expectations of it. Had my expectations of this team been lower, I probably still would be glued to each game. But my preseason expectations of this team, whether because of desperation or sheer folly, were higher than any other year I can remember, even 1993.

I have to come to the only reasonable conclusion. The Phillies yet again don't have enough -- enough pitching, enough hitting, enough heart -- to make the playoffs. If only kickoff were next week, not two months away.

Now, for a real sport

Classic lines from the broadcast of today's Nathan's Famous International July Fourth Hot Dog Eating Contest:

"If you Google 'American hero' tomorrow, you'll see Abraham Lincoln, Neil Armstrong ... and Joey Chestnut if he can pull this one out."

"Kobayashi's had his wisdom teeth out. I don't know if you've ever had your wisdom teeth out, but it's more of a pain than a Peyton Manning cell phone commercial."

"It's an emotional win -- a great day for America."

On one of the lesser-known competitors: "He's like Kenny Lofton and Sam Cassell. He's Robert Horry without the rings."

Houston ... and plenty of problems

It's as hard to tell what to make of the mercifully-over four-game series with the Mets as it is of the 2001 Phillies. After all of the talk in spring training about what a glut of starting pitching the team had, it's hard to stomach their lack of starting pitching now. How can you expect to beat the Mets even once with three minor leaguers and an unrefined Cole Hamels? A split would have been a miracle. Taking one game was about the best you could expect. I thought that game would have come at the hands of Hamels, but those hands just keep throwing home run balls, which is why Kyle Kendrick was left with the task of slaying the Mets.

So, now that the NY dogs have finally gone west in search of other meat, what do we have? Eighty-two games in the books, five games back of the division lead, only four back of the wild-card-leading Dodgers. Considering the slings and arrows this team has suffered so far this season (losing two closers, two starters and 2006 NL MVP Ryan Howard for a couple of weeks) it's not an awful place to be. Sure, this team could be leading the division by a couple of games, especially considering how many games the Mets were giving away a few weeks ago. But the other side of the coin says the Phils could be 12 or more out (they were 8.5 out on May 31).

Since the Phils began the latest grueling stretch of their schedule, they're 7-9. Not great, not awful. Now they have a six games on the road against two teams oddly similar to the good-hit, no-pitch denizens of CBP -- Houston and Colorado. These are the series when the Phillies, especially when coming off a clunker, often sputter to life.

Giveaway Day

It wasn't advertised, but the Phils' doubleheader against the Mets today was a giveaway day. Not a Shane Victorino hula bobblehead, though. This time, two games were given away, and possiby the NL East race. Before you accuse me of hyperbole and defeatism because the season is not quite half over, remember 2001. That year the Phillies finished two games behind the Braves in the division. The Phils had a 9-10 record against the Braves that season, and three of the losses came in a three-game set in Philadelphia at the end of June. Would things have been different had the Phils taken two of three from the Braves in that series?

If that's not enough, how about 2005? The Phillies wound up just one solitary game in back of the Astros in the wild card race. Their record against Houston that season: 0-6 (the last three of which came in a sweep in early September at CBP; remember Craig Biggio destroying a Billy Wagner fastball for a three-run home run? That was in the ghastly ninth inning of the final game). Had the Phillies been able to take two of those six games, again, they likely would not have been on the golf course in October.

So here, we are -- another year, another apparent Phillies collapse against a team they're battling with for a postseason berth. With rookies J.A. Happ and Kyle Kendrick going the next two days, I don't expect much. The Phillies' recent history (not to mention the rest of the woeful story) doesn't let me.

I'll take 'The Pen Is Not Mighter' for $100, Alex

It's games like last night's that begat the saying, "Only in Philadelphia can a sports fan turn off the TV after a win and be angry." The Phillies, despite the best efforts of their bullpen (and the utter refusal of the umpires to halt the game during a monsoon), beat the Reds in 10 innings.

On the heels of a second straight underwhelming outing by the underwhelming Adam Eaton, Ryan Madson coughed up two more runs. The season is almost at the midpoint, and the Phils' offense has been able to keep them near the top of the NL East and wild card races. But there will come a point when the bullpen is going to have to be counted on for scoreless innings. I would say that time would be this weekend's four-gamer against the Mets, but because three of the Phillies starting pitchers have spent most of this season in the minors, I'm not sure the 'pen is going to be relevant.

Their time will come soon. It will be in the hands of Geoff Geary, Madson, Antonio Alfonseca, Clay Condrey, Brian Sanches, et al. For the past two-plus weeks, all but Alfonseca (amazingly) have been lit up more than Richie Ashburn's old cigar.

Sippin' through the final straw

Jon Lieber has a ruptured tendon in his foot, and he may be out for the season. Not to say that Lieber is an integral part of the Phils' rotation -- he's way too inconsistent for that -- but he has something that whoever replaces him almost certainly won't: experience. Who will the Phillies bring up from Double-A Reading to fill the gap? And why doesn't this organization seem to have any arms at Triple-A? Guess we'll know soon.

Bull Pen

The Phillies' bullpen has reached China Syndrome levels. Eight runs in the sixth inning tonight (many of which were starter Jon Lieber's fault) in what will be another loss to the Indians. Even in their one win in this series, the 'pen almost gave it away.

Teams can't afford to have their bullpen consistently cough up two, three, six runs a game -- which is the biggest obstacle between the Phillies and first place in the NL East. It's been that way since Opening Day, and the only solution is through a change of personnel. The ownership certainly won't throw around money, so the only possible personnel "change" is the return of Tom Gordon and Brett Myers.

Meet the new boss -- same as the old boss.

Indians #2

Kyle Kendrick soldiers through six innings against the Indians, with the Phillies holding a 6-3 lead, and now Ryan Madson enters. Gulp.

Cole breaker

Two days, two seemingly different stories for the Phillies' pitching staff. On Sunday, they got another solid outing from Adam Eaton, played small ball (which they have failed to do consistently this season) and took a lead into the seventh against the Tigers, only to see their shaky bullpen capitulate. Tonight it was the front end of the staff's turn to fail, with Cole Hamels looking vulnerable from the first batter (Grady Sizemore, who pushed a bunt past Hamels, stole second and scored the first run of the game).

The 'pen wasn't blameless, as Geoff Geary (3 ER in one inning) was scored on for the fourth straight outing and Brian Sanches gave up a home run to former Phil Jason Michaels (wouldn't he look great in left field compared with the current albatross?)

But tonight served to remind us that Cole Hamels is not invincible. He's not even great. Not yet. He has the potential to be great, which we have seen in his nine wins this season. But he's still in only his second season, and he's still very much a raw talent. He's not ready to be a pitcher who can be counted on for a quality start nearly every time out.

So if the bullpen cannot be counted on (see Sunday) ... and the No. 1 starter isn't quite a No. 1 (see tonight) ... how can the Phillies possibly stay in contention? They have begun one of the toughest stretches of their schedule (vs Detroit, at Cleveland, at St. Louis, vs Cincinnati, vs Mets, at Houston, at Colorado, vs. St Louis, at Dodgers, at San Diego). That 31-game stretch will play a large role in determining their fate in September -- and 1-3 isn't a good way to start.

JRoll's role

Jimmy Rollins drew a walk tonight, his 18th of the season -- putting him on pace for about 43 walks. In 2006, Rollins walked 57 times, tying his career-high. Rollins' counterpart on the Mets, Jose Reyes, had 54 walks last season. This year, Reyes has 39 walks, which equates to a total of 96 walks for the season.

Before I go any further, let me note that Rollins has an OPS of .861 this season (mostly thanks to his 13 HRs), which would be by far the highest of his career. But Reyes, who has only three HRs, has the higher OPS at .866. (He's also on pace for 88 steals).

The point: Rollins home run explosion this season isn't a boon, and it may be an albatross. While a home run is a guaranteed run, it's an all-or-nothing wager. When Rollins, an Oakland native, is back-legging it, he's the baseball equivalent of his hometown basketball team -- the 3-point-or-bust Warriors.

In basketball, the safer shot is the layup. That's what Reyes does, and what a leadoff hitter -- arguably the most important batter in the lineup -- should do. He walks, slaps a single, steals second (and maybe third) and leaves the rest to the middle of the lineup. Last year, it helped get the Mets to the NL East title and a game away from the World Series.

For better or worse, Rollins is the Phillies' leadoff hitter. His affinity for the longball may keep his run total and OPS high, but in the long run the lower-percentage play is always more likely than not to fail, as the Warriors found out against the Jazz.

And we're off ...

Welcome to the Philadelphia sports fan blog -- Phlog, for short. I've been talking about getting this running for a while, and I've finally matched deeds to words. The timing seems about right, too. The Phillies have crept back into the National League East (and Wild Card) races, Eagles hype is beginning its annual pre-training camp buildup, the NBA Draft is less than two weeks away ... and then there are the Flyers.

The Phillies seem to have recaptured our attention -- at least for a few days -- selling more than 42,000 tickets to the first game of this weekend's series with the Tigers. And the fans got what they wanted -- home runs, of which the Phillies launched five (but only one with a man on the bathpaths). This Phils team seems intent on living and dying by the home run, and solo home runs aren't going to cut it. But home runs won't matter much when your pitching staff -- which often seems as reliable as a bottle of Chinese cough syrup -- gives up 12 runs. Teams that do that a few too many times have to make other plans for October. Jamie Moyer (6 ER in 3 2/3 last time out) will be playing Wiffleball with the Tigers on Saturday.